November 2025
November was driven by geopolitics (read Donald Trump), strained economic momentum and fading investor complacency. Nerves again returned to markets as investors priced in a world that looked riskier, slower and structurally less predictable than it had just a few months earlier.
The war in Ukraine, though largely static militarily, became a diplomatic focal point through a US-led peace effort. Markets were forced into an uncomfortable calculation: whether peace, if achieved, might stabilise Europe — or fracture alliances with a deal that rewarded aggression. Meanwhile, the Middle East continued to simmer, with Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Beirut. Asia, too, looked uncertain as China flexed its muscles in contested waters.
It was against this backdrop that the economic picture darkened almost imperceptibly. The US showed stubbornly mixed signals: employment held, consumption softened, housing stalled and credit tightened. In Europe, manufacturing remained fragile and households cautious. China failed to ignite momentum despite repeated policy nudges, its economy seemingly trapped between stimulus fatigue and structural constraint.
In this environment, the Bank of England held rates at 4%, acknowledging inflation had likely peaked but refusing to declare victory. The European Central Bank followed suit, signalling restraint rather than rescue as manufacturing data slid and political risk climbed. In the US, the Fed remained conspicuously quiet.
Equity markets reflected the unease. Wall Street stalled, with the S&P 500 clinging to a negligible 0.1% gain while the Nasdaq slid 1.5% as investors trimmed exposure to overstretched growth stocks. Europe showed little conviction, with the FTSE 100 flat for the month and the DAX off 0.5%. Asia fared worst: the Nikkei sank 4.1% and the Shanghai Composite lost 1.7% as weak sentiment and macro uncertainty took hold.
In commodities, oil markets oscillated between surplus anxiety and geopolitical risk, ultimately finishing the month lower as traders worried that any breakthrough in Ukraine could release Russian supply and deepen oversupply. WTI fell 4.0% and Brent declined 3.7%. In contrast, precious metals surged as investors sought refuge: gold climbed 6.5%, while silver outpaced all major assets, soaring 18.7% on the back of both industrial demand and tightening supply chains.
November was merciless on crypto. Bitcoin plunged under the weight of forced liquidations and institutional retreat, while Ether followed it lower as risk appetite evaporated across digital assets. Altcoins collapsed, ETF outflows accelerated, and, in a matter of weeks, more than a trillion dollars was erased from the sector’s market value. Only in the final days did prices begin to stabilise, though Bitcoin still closed the month down 17.5%, underscoring how violently sentiment had reversed.